S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said the Indian economy is projected to grow at 11 per cent in the current fiscal, but flagged the "substantial" impact of broader lockdowns on the economy. In its report on Asia-Pacific Financial Institutions, S&P said the control of COVID-19 remains a key risk for the economy. New infections have spiked in recent weeks and the country is in the middle of a second pandemic wave.
Prospective buyers must make a well-considered decision regarding whether this is the right time to buy a house, particularly with home loan rates at near-peak levels, and the risk of job losses looming in many sectors.
Tata Motors was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, tumbling 2.47 per cent, followed by Reliance Industries (2.44 per cent), Maruti (1.84 per cent), SBI (1.76 per cent) and Bajaj Finance (1.23 per cent).
Soon after RBI announcing a much- awaited rate cut, Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian on Wednesday said that the global rating agencies should look at upgrading their stance on India's credit outlook. "Now we have a 50 basis points rate cut (in two tranches within two months) and I think that is good for the economy and all rate cuts benefits... If the outlook is looking good, the rating agencies should draw their lessons from that om improving the outlook," Subramanian told reporters. After presentation of Union Budget 2015-16 last week, global and domestic agencies had ruled out any immediate upgrade in India's sovereign ratings and had red-flagged the country's delayed fiscal consolidation roadmap and had also warned against any slippages from the "ambitious" disinvestment plan proposed in Budget. Subramanian said that the rate cut is consistent with the government's views in the last week's Economic Survey and thereafter in the Union Budget for the outlook on inflation and for the outlook on overall economy. "It (rate cut) shows that RBI and government are on the same page in terms of how we view the economy. It also means that Budget can be seen as conducive to non-inflationary growth," he added. On monetary policy framework agreement, Subramanian said that both Finance Ministry and RBI have shared concern about inflation. Recently, the Finance Ministry and the Reserve Bank agreed to 'inflation rate targeting' under which the apex bank will aim to lower retail inflation to below 6 per cent by January 2016.
The domestic hospitality industry is looking to 'fly' in 2023 cashing in on India's G20 presidency, having received the 'oxygen' to run in 2022 after being crippled in the past two years by the pandemic. Domestic travel, especially the leisure segment, gave wind to the industry this year and is expected to continue into the next. Industry players believe that as international arrivals are also likely to pick up even further, the outlook for 2023 is buoyant.
There are four things that stand out in China's strategy for electric vehicles, says Vandana Gombar.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said that inflation is on a declining trajectory, as it has fallen by 170 basis points from its January 2020 peak. Retail inflation fell to four-month low of 5.91 per cent in March over the previous month, mainly due to easing food prices.
The Reserve Bank remains laser-focused to bring back retail inflation to 4 per cent over a period of time in a non-disruptive manner, Governor Shaktikanta Das stressed while voting for status quo in interest rates, as per minutes of the October policy meeting released on Friday. The central bank has been mandated by the government to ensure the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation is at 4 per cent, with a band of 2 per cent on either side. The retail inflation, which was above 6 per cent during May and June, has started moving down and stood at 4.35 per cent in September.
'In FY23, PV sales are expected to end the year at a record 3.8 million units, up 26 per cent. In FY24, however, the industry is expecting 5-7 per cent volume growth'
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday ruled out upside risks to the 5.3 per cent inflation forecast for the current fiscal, saying the recent cut in excise duty on diesel and petrol as well as better management of supply-side issues on the food front have contained inflationary expectations. These measures are significantly positive for inflation management, he said. After months of calls for reducing taxes on fuels, the government, last week, cut the excise duty on diesel and petrol by Rs 10 and Rs 5 per litre, respectively.
Nasscom said growth for the current financial year (2016-17) was expected to be 8.6%
About railways sector, the Survey said that it is facing stiff competition from other modes of transportation and the government is initiating various transformative measures to keep railways on track.
Fitch Ratings director Thomas Rookmaaker said India's debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to rise to 76 per cent from 70 per cent currently due to wider fiscal deficit and low economic growth.
Morgan Stanley says favourable factors will push Sensex to 32,500 level by December.
India's net employment outlook -- an indicator of recruitment intentions -- stood at 27 per cent, unchanged from the prior quarter and 18 percentage points weaker year-over-year.
Indian economy is likely to rebound with an 8.9 per cent growth in the fiscal year beginning April 2021 after economic activity showed significant improvement in the last quarter, IHS Markit said on Friday. The National Statistical Organisation (NSO) on Thursday predicted that the economy will contract 7.7 per cent in the current financial year ending in March, the worst performance in four decades.
'It is going to be a tough balance for the RBI to manage economic stability and ensure smooth government borrowing.'
India's second-largest software services company Infosys on Wednesday posted 12 per cent year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 5,686 crore for March quarter 2021-22. The Bengaluru-based company had registered a net profit (after minority interest) of Rs 5,076 crore in the corresponding period previous year, according to a regulatory filing. Infosys' revenue grew 22.7 per cent to Rs 32,276 crore in the quarter from Rs 26,311 crore in the year-ago period, it added.
UBS reduced its Nifty target to 8,600 by December from 9,200.
'We expect the bull run to continue until economic growth continues.'
RBI said inflation in the second half of the current fiscal is projected at 2.7-3.2%. It retained its GDP forecast for the current fiscal at 7.4%
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be 8.8 to 9 per cent in the current financial year, driven by agriculture and industry sectors, Care Ratings said in a report. The country's economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21. The agency said the outlook for the Indian economy on almost all counts in FY22 would look seemingly better than FY21 on account of the negative base effect.
It is rare for Cabinet ministers to tick off state-owned companies publicly, yet that was what then petroleum and natural gas minister Dharmendra Pradhan did for ONGC. Speaking at an event on June 29, Pradhan said he has asked India's premier exploration company to find fresh oil acreages fast. "Do it yourself through some joint venture (or) through a new business model. But the government cannot permit you to hold resources for an indefinite time." The reason for this stricture is India's rising dependence on imported oil and gas. Or, to put it another way, falling domestic production (see chart: "Crude truth"), especially from ONGC, which faces a simple problem.
The Finance Ministry expects GDP growth to be 8-8.5 per cent in 2015-16.
East Asia's emerging economies are projected to grow by 6 per cent this year as policy makers face the delicate challenge of responding to a reduced pace of global trade expansion, the World Bank said on Wednesday.
'India's manufacturing will take 10-15 years to catch up with China.'
Former Arsenal manager and world governing body FIFA's current chief of global football development, Arsene Wenger will play a role in Indian football's grassroots programmes and talent development.
Indian employers reported the strongest hiring plans while the weakest Asia Pacific forecast was reported in mainland China.
Companies are also worried about inflationary pressures building up.
With the world's worst outbreak of COVID pandemic stalling a nascent economic recovery, the government has begun assessing the impact of the second wave of infections on different sectors and may look at providing support at an appropriate time to segments requiring fiscal help. Some of the economic indicators, including the Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections, still provide confidence and incoming data will throw some more light on the state of the economy, sources said. Services sectors like hospitality, tourism and aviation which had just started recovering were hit hard by the second wave of COVID, the sources said, adding these segments might need some support on an urgent basis from the government.
Supply chain constraints will keep plaguing automobile companies even though demand significantly improved resulting in a 13 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase in sales in financial year 2021-22 (FY22). Executives at auto firms fear that the Russia-Ukraine war will further dent the sector's prospects of recovery as supply chains face more disruptions. "The visibility in the supply side is so hazy that it is difficult to give even one quarter projection. But all the parameters of demand like pending bookings and enquiries are increasing.
However, the SBI report said it will take almost seven-quarters from Q4 FY21 to reach the pre-pandemic level in nominal terms and there will be a permanent output loss of around 9 per cent of GDP.
With domestic retail fuel prices jumping to record high on rising international oil rates, India on Thursday pressed oil cartel OPEC for 'affordable' oil price within a 'reasonable band' and that the producers should phase out production cuts. OPEC nations such as Saudi Arabia have traditionally been India's principal oil source. But, OPEC and its allies, called OPEC+, ignoring its call for ease supply curbs had led to the world's third-biggest oil importer tap newer sources to diversify its crude oil imports. As a result, OPEC's share in India's oil imports has dropped to about 60 per cent in May from 74 per cent in the previous month.
The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a report on Monday that a lower but positive economic growth in India in the post-Covid-19 pandemic period and India's large market will continue to attract market-seeking investments to the country. The World Investment Report 2020 by UNCTAD said that India was the 9th largest recipient of FDI in 2019, with 51 billion dollars of inflows during the year, an increase from the 42 billion dollars of FDI received in 2018, when India ranked 12 among the top 20 host economies in the world.
Software industry body Nasscom on Tuesday maintained its growth projection of 16-18 per cent for the sector in this fiscal, notwithstanding concerns over economic uncertainty in global markets.
The brokerage said it has high hopes for recovery and reforms following the general elections.
For 2021-22, it projected the economy to clock a growth of 10.6 per cent.
Business activity has fallen by a fourth of the pre-COVID levels due to lockdowns imposed by states to contain the spread of the second wave of COVID-19, Japanese brokerage Nomura said on Tuesday. However, it said the falling activity levels will have a muted economic impact and maintained its growth estimates for the year, saying the lockdowns present "downside risks". As of April 25, the Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) registered its steepest weekly fall in over a year of 8.5 percentage points to 75.9, which is 24 percentage points below pre-pandemic normal, the brokerage said in a statement.
As he projected a grim outlook for the economy, RBI Governor said that amidst this encircling gloom, agriculture and allied activities have provided a beacon of hope on the back of an increase of 3.7 per cent in foodgrains production to a new record.
